There are always starters who surprise everyone with like ace-like performances in the first week of the season. Deciphering who is for real and who got lucky is a tricky process. 

Last season, owners who capitalized on the early gems of Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson and Randy Wolf felt like geniuses all season. Those who pounced on Kyle Davies and Armando Galarraga were only rewarded with aggravation.

Here are a few intriguing under-the-radar guys to watch closely after their first outings opened a few eyes (I’m not including Bronson Arroyo because it’s a crime if he’s not owned in all leagues).

Luke Hochevar: 7 2/3 IP, ND, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 Ks vs. Tigers
Up until this year, that sound you heard from the Kauffman Stadium stands when Hochevar was pitching wasn’t “LUUUUUUKE” — the fans were actually booing. The first overall Draft choice from 2006 has yet to live up to the billing, compiling a 13-26 record with a 5.88 ERA in 284 2/3 career innings. However the 26-year-old right-hander put it all together Wednesday, throwing 96 mph gas consistently and harnessing his offspeed stuff to keep the Tigers off-balance all night.  It’s tough not to bite when a recent first overall pick shows flashes like this, so if he pitches well next Monday in Detroit, I’d take a flier on him.

Ricky Romero: 7 IP, ND, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 Ks at Rangers
Romero was a hot April pickup last year, when he racked up a 1.71 ERA through three starts before getting injured. After missing a month, the 25-year-old southpaw returned with a great June but struggled the rest of the way.  The sixth overall Draft pick in ’05, Romero looks primed for a solid season after a stellar debut on the road against a strong Rangers lineup. 

Brad Penny: 7 IP, ND, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4 Ks at Reds
After looking like a lost cause in 2008 and for most of ’09 with the Red Sox, Penny quietly went 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP in six starts after a trade to the Giants.  Now with the Cardinals and pitching coach Dave Duncan, who has a history of rejuvenating veteran starters (Chris Carpenter, Kyle Lohse, Joel Pineiro), the 31-year-old Penny appears to have his career back on track.  Even after Thursday night’s gem, Penny is owned in just 14 percent of Yahoo! leagues, so act quick.

Dallas Braden: 7 IP, ND, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 10 Ks vs. Mariners
In 2009, plenty of owners flirted with Braden and his sub-4.00 ERA before he was lost for the final 53 games with a foot injury. Probably the biggest reason he is currently owned in only 23 percent of Yahoo! Leagues is last year’s modest 81 Ks in 136 2/3 innings. So his 10-strikeout outing Tuesday was quite the revelation, as he mowed down one Mariner after another in a masterful performance.  Maintaining a solid K rate would make him a nice back-of-your-rotation starter, as he’s a good bet for an ERA in the mid- to high 3.00s and a decent WHIP.

Honorable Mentions:
 
C.J. Wilson: 7 IP, ND, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 Ks vs Blue Jays

Carl Pavano: 7 IP, W, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 6 Ks @ Angels

Justin Masterson: 5 IP, ND, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 Ks @ White Sox

Ian Kennedy: 5 IP, ND, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 8 Ks vs Padres

Getting in the spirit of overreacting to the first couple games of the year, there are already some guys who have warranted sleeper consideration on the team that won the Fewest Names in Preseason Draft Guides Award. 

Tuesday night’s 6-3 victory over the Diamondbacks summed up why the Padres may be one of the biggest surprises of 2010, and fantasy owners should be paying attention.

There’s a good chance you already know about 6-foot-6, 270-pound future beast Kyle Blanks, and 21-year-old potential ace Matt Latos.  However, Tuesday night’s box-score standout was diminutive shortstop Everth Cabrera, who, as The Rundown highlighted, fell a homer short of the cycle while knocking in four runs and adding a steal. 

The 23-year-old speed demon swiped 25 bags in 103 games last season, and should be a stud in that department in 2010.  He’s shown the ability to draw walks and hit for a decent average, so once the Padres move him up from the eighth spot in the order, he could end up with similar numbers to far more hyped shortstop prospects Alcides Escobar and Elvis Andrus.

A guy who made less of a bang Tuesday was third baseman Chase Headley, who matched his first game’s performance with two base knocks.  Building on a strong spring in which he hit .319, slugged .536 and knocked in 23 runs, the 25-year-old former top prospect may finally be figuring out big league pitching.  In a very thin year for third baseman, Headley is a guy to watch closely; he’s also eligible in the outfield in most leagues.

Getting a little deeper, 26-year-old outfielder Will Venable jacked a solo shot Tuesday, picking up from a monster spring in which he hit .345 with four homers and a 1.130 OPS.  Venable, who quietly slugged 12 homers over the last three months of ’09, is a guy to consider in NL-only leagues for sure. 

Starting pitcher Chris Young was a forgotten man heading into 2010, but reminded everyone what he’s capable of with six scoreless innings of one-hit ball and five strikeouts.  This gem was reminiscent of the outings regularly delivered by a pitcher who compiled a 3.30 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and 331 Ks in 352 1/3 innings from 2006-07.  If Tuesday’s start was an indication he’s back to form, Young is the biggest Padres sleeper of them all.  

One pitcher’s demise leads
to another one’s opportunity.  Last season, 13 relievers who didn’t
begin the year as their team’s “official” closer finished with
at least 10 saves.  Guys like Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma and
Ryan Franklin were on absolutely no one’s preseason radar but turned
out to be among the best closers in the game.   Each year
since 2000, no less than 45 pitchers have finished the season with at
least five saves.  

The point of all this is that
the waiver wire is an always abundant source of saves, so don’t stress
over how many closers you have to start the year.  New closers
become available virtually every week due to injury, trades or the poor
performance of their predecessors. 

Arizona’s Juan Gutierrez stepped
in when Chad Qualls went down last September and went 8-for-8 in save
opportunities. He displayed the mid-90s fastball and sharp slider that
better fits the job description than Qualls, and is a good bet to become
the closer at some point this year. 

It’s confusing why a team would
sign a 37-year-old as a contingency plan for a 42-year-old, but Milwaukee
did just that by signing LaTroy Hawkins to be their setup man. 
LaTroy is likely to rack up some saves in place of Trevor Hoffman, after
shutting the door 11 times last season as a part-time fill-in for Jose
Valverde and pitching to a 2.13 ERA. 

Easily the best reliever no
one knew about in 2009 was San Diego’s 31-year-old Mike Adams, who churned
out a 0.73 ERA, a 0.59 WHIP and a 45/8 K/BB ratio in 37 innings. 
With Heath Bell a good candidate to get traded at some point, you could
end up striking gold with Adams if he can come anywhere close to those
numbers. 

The Rangers have the hyped-up
version of Adams in 21-year-old Natali Feliz, who will be breathing
down the neck of a shaky and injury prone Frankie Francisco.  In
31 innings last year, Feliz had a 1.74 ERA, a 0.68 WHIP, 39 strikeouts
and an unbelievable .124 BAA.  Sorry Frankie.

In 2009, there were 10 relievers
penciled in as Opening Day closers who were out of those roles by August,
due to poor performance, trades or injuries.  Guys like Brandon
Morrow, Brad Ziegler and Joel Hanrahan became hot names around draft
time but were setup men by June.   

The closer role becomes a merry-go-round
for lots of teams once the season starts, and a fantasy player you’re
most likely to get burned by is one you’re relying on for saves.  
Heading into 2010, you can already pinpoint a few guys who are destined
to lose their jobs at some point, so if you unfortunately drafted one,
it’s time to start thinking of him as trade bait. 

Arizona’s Chad Qualls managed
to barely get by in 09, but you just get the feeling he isn’t a true
closer.  He missed the last month after knee surgery, and he’s
pitched to a 7.45 ERA this spring with opponents hitting .300 off him.  

Not having to pitch in a single
game with any meaning, Trevor Hoffman turned back the clock last season
and put up incredible numbers.  It was really somewhat of a miracle,
and there is almost no chance the 42-year-old will be able to stay healthy
enough to do it again.  His .450 opponents’ average this spring
agrees. 

Frankie Francisco went on the
DL three separate times last season and posted a 5.82 ERA after the
All-Star break.  He also has a spring BAA of over .300, as there
seems to be a pattern developing here.

Leo Nunez has been getting
some preseason hype but his 4.40 post-All-Star break ERA (6.10 in September)
creates some skepticism.  Just get the feeling he isn’t closer
material, especially with a career K/BB ratio barely above 2/1. Going
along with the crowd, his spring ERA is an ugly 5.59.  

Dump these guys for some value
if you can, and quick.